Changes in technology anticipated to change the pattern of pollutant emissions

New Technologies Anticipated to Decrease Pollutant Emissions The need for energy increases as the population grows and the desire for better living conditions increases. 85% of our energy demands come from the combustion of fossil fuels. Fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas are non-renewable sources of energy. They are limited and non-sustaining. The earth cannot replenish these resources as fast as they are being obtained by man. The continuous increase in energy consumption has taken its toll on the environment. Eventually, this precious resource will be depleted. The solution is to stop or decrease its usage. Man cannot altogether stop using fossil fuels but moves to decrease energy consumption by developing new technologies designed for energy efficiency is the best way to alleviate the state of the environment.New Technologies refer to both innovations in production or generation of energy and its actual use. Generation of energy from solar, wind, geothermal, tides and hydroelectric are, currently, being implemented and studied. The graph below shows that new technologies in the generation of energy from renewable resources delivers needed energy but emits less CO2 emissions. US-NASA predicts further decrease in CO2 emissions in the future.New technologies developed for actual use or consumption of energy seeks to maximize these renewable sources of energy in the three major areas of transportation. industrial energy usage. and, in commercial and residential buildings. This is clearly exemplified in the Modern Refrigerators and the introduction of Electronic Vehicles. The diagram below shows that the energy use per refrigerator decreased by two-thirds since the introduction of new energy efficient refrigerators. The continued study and development of refrigerator efficiency improvements has proven to be a success.The introduction of Electronic Vehicles according to the research by Micheal Wang, Mark DeLuchi and Daniel Sperling has the effects of lowering the emissions of HC, CO, NO, SO, and particulates. With continued use, they predict a significant reduction in California that will help major air basins in California meet national ambient air quality standards. It cannot be denied that new technologies decrease pollutant emissions. To be fully effective, according to study conducted by Amit Garg, P.R. Shukla, Debyani Ghosh, Manmohan Kapshe and Nair Rajesh, laws and governments must give full support to the endeavor. Alternative Energy Sources. Retrieved 3/24/10 at, Clive. Energy Management, Supply and Conservation. Elsevier: London. 2009 Garg A., Shukla P., Ghosh D., Kapshe M., amp. Rajesh N. Future Greenhouse Gas and Local Pollutant Emissions for India: Policy Links and Disjoints. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol.8 No. 1. March 2003.Moss, Keith J. Energy Management in Buildings. 2nd edition. Taylor and Francis Group: London. 2006.Muguti, E., Everts, S., Schulte B., and Smallegange, L. Energy Efficiency. Intermediate Technology Pulications: London. 1999.Surles, Terry. Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Workshop. NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York N.Y. Retrieved on 4/12/10 from, J., Drake, E., Driscoll, M., Golay, M., and Peters, W. Sustainable Energy: Choosing Among Options. MIT Press: London. 2005Wang, Michael Q., Mark A. DeLuchi, Daniel Sperling (1989) Air Pollutant Emissions and Electric Vehicles. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-89-01. Retrieved on 4/14/10 at is sustainable development? Goals, Indicators, Values. Retrieved 3/24/10 at… /whatisSD_env_kates_0504.pdfAir Pollutant Emissions and Electric VehiclesMichael Q. WangMark A. DeLuchiDaniel SperlingReference Number: UCD-ITS-RR-89-01Received by ITS-Davis: May 1989Series: Research ReportSuggested Citation:Wang, Michael Q., Mark A. DeLuchi, Daniel Sperling (1989) Air Pollutant Emissions and Electric Vehicles. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, Research Report UCD-ITS-RR-89-01Abstract: The introduction of EVs will affect emissions of HC, CO, NOx, SOx, and particulates. It will also affect emissions of greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3), and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Greenhouse impacts of EVs are addressed elsewhere, and are not considered in this paper. The use of EVs may also reduce total emissions of benzene, but available data do not permit an analysis of benzene reduction. EVs reduce the noise from on-road vehicles because of their inherently quiet propulsion systems, but noise reduction has been estimated elsewhere, and shown to be small.In this study, we consider five pollutants: HC, CO, NOx, SOx, and particulates. We use a comparative approach. We calculate emission factors of the five pollutants for both ICEVs and EVs, and estimate emission reductions for each pollutant. For ICEVs, we calculate fleet average emission factors in a target year by taking into consideration the mix of model-years, age, and mileage of vehicles. For EVs, we estimate emission factors of power plants, and then assign the calculated emission factors to EVs in accordance with their electricity consumption.Emission factors of power plants are primarily a function of fuel mix of electricity generation and emission control technologies of power plants. We use fuel mix projections of electricity generation and establish scenarios of emission control technologies, and use sensitivity analysis to test the significance of fuel mix and emission control technologies. Since electricity consumption per mile of EVs is an important factor for EV emission factors, we design scenarios of EV electricity consumption in our calculation.Over time, changes occur in emission control technologies, fuel mix of power plants, fleet average emission rates of ICEVs, and electricity consumption of EVs. The calculation of EV emission reductions therefore must be targeted to particular years. We estimate the emission impacts of EVs in four target years: 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2030. Since many factors are uncertain in the future, we use scenario analysis on power plant emission control strategies, energy mix of electricity generation, EV electricity consumption, and EV market penetration to calculate EV emission reductions in these four target years.We calculate per mile emission reductions of EVs in California and the U.S., and tons-per-day emission reduction of EVs in California. The latter demonstrates the potential for EVs to help major air basins in California meet national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS). AmitGarg1, P.R.Shukla2, DebyaniGhosh3, ManmohanKapshe4 and NairRajesh4(1)Project Management Cell, NATCOM Project, Winrock International India, 7, Poorvi Marg, Vasant Vihar, New Delhi –, 110057, India(2)Public Systems Group, Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015, India(3)Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, U.S.A(4)Indian Institute of Management, Vastrapur, Ahmedabad, 380015, IndiaAbstractThis paper estimates the future greenhousegas (GHG) and local pollutant emissions forIndia under various scenarios. Thereference scenario assumes continuation ofthe current official policies of the Indiangovernment and forecasts of macro-economic,demographic and energy sector indicators.Other scenarios analyzed are the economicgrowth scenarios (high and low), carbonmitigation scenario, sulfur mitigationscenario and frozen (development) scenario.The main insight is that GHG and localpollutant emissions from India, althoughconnected, do not move in synchronizationin future and have a disjoint under variousscenarios. GHG emissions continue to risewhile local pollutant emissions decreaseafter some years. GHG emission mitigationtherefore would have to be pursued for itsown sake in India. National energy securityconcerns also favor this conclusion sincecoal is the abundant national resource whilemost of the natural gas has to be imported.The analysis of contributing factors tothis disjoint indicates that sulfurreduction in petroleum oil products andpenetration of flue gas desulfurisationtechnologies are the two main contributorsfor sulfur dioxide (SO2) mitigation.The reduction in particulate emissions ismainly due to enforcing electro-staticprecipitator efficiency norms in industrialunits, with cleaner fuels and vehicles alsocontributing substantially. These policytrends are already visible in India.Another insight is that high economicgrowth is better than lower growth tomitigate local pollution as lack ofinvestible resources limits investments incleaner environmental measures. Ouranalysis also validates the environmentalKuznets curve for India as SO2emissions peak around per capita GDP ofUS$ 5,300–5,400 (PPP basis) under variouseconomic growth scenarios Staunching the growth of emissions from electricity requires attention primarily to energy efficiency and choice of energy sources. The merit in addressing efficiency is illustrated by the energy use of refrigerators produced in the United States (Figure 6). Energy use per refrigerator increased rapidly after World War II, but since 1975 it has declined by more than two-thirds. The success in refrigerator efficiency improvements has dropped residential refrigerators to 10th place in the list of peak energy uses in California (top uses: commercial air conditioning 15%, residential air conditioning 14%, industry assembly 11%, commercial lighting 11%, commercial miscellaneous 7%, residential miscellaneous 6%). Air conditioning offers an opportunity for significant further improvement, but, because of the large number of electricity uses, efficiency must be addressed across the board to minimize pollution and CO2 emissions.The choice of energy sources for electricity also strongly affects CO2 emissions. Figure 7 shows that CO2 emission per kilowatt-hour varies tremendously with energy source, as do air pollutants. CO2 emission associated with renewable energies is not negligible, especially for solar energy, but more efficient construction of solar power materials is anticipated. Nuclear power is especially effective in minimizing CO2 emissions. Black carbon aerosols and ozone precursors are minimized by nuclear power and by most renewable energies, but not, of course, with residential burning of wood or other biofuels.The increasing role of electricity makes it more feasible to capture undesirable products of fossil fuel burning. However, it remains to be demonstrated that capture and sequestration of CO2 on a large scale will be both economically feasible and environmentally acceptable. Transportation. The number of new vehicles produced per year increased by a factor of 10 in the past 50 years and is still increasing. In Europe, in the United States, and in developing countries, transportation vehicles cause a growing proportion of CO2 emissions. Vehicles are also a major source of air pollutants, including black carbon and ozone precursors.In the near-term, even though the number of vehicles will be increasing, air pollutant emissions could decreas and the growth rate of CO2 emissions could be slowed as available and developing technologies are implemented. As for the climate effect of diesel engines, it is unclear whether their added efficiency (above gasoline engines) is outweighed by the increased emission of black carbon. Although particle trap technology exists for capture of most of the black carbon emissions, a small proportion on non-conforming vehicles is capable of dominating the total emissions.On the long-term, achievement of declining emissions and a clean atmosphere probably requires introduction of vehicles powered by a source other than fossil fuels, for example, by hydrogen. The rationale for requiring a small proportion of so-called zero emission vehicles (ZEVs), as planned in California, is the aim of spurring relevant technological development. Renewable energies such as solar and wind power, available in large but intermittent amounts in certain regions, are well-suited for producing hydrogen. However, despite a significant research effort, practical storage and transportation technologies for hydrogen remain a challenge. There is still much to be learned about the potential environmental, engineering, and economic aspects of a hydrogen economy. Practical storage and transportation technologies are challenges that continue to be addressed in research efforts. Case studies. The case studies demonstrate the potential of more efficient and less polluting technologies. China provides a recent demonstration, with a rapid reduction in energy use per GDP (Figure 3) and a recent modest reduction in some air pollution (4). In the United States the increased efficiency of refrigerators (Figure 6) is a triumph of the Energy Star program of the Environmental Protection Agency. It illustrates the potential of the government promoting energy-efficient practices by working with industry and educating the buying public. The successes in China and the United States show the possible gains from technologies that are developed with industrial acceptance, cognizance of local cultures, and ease of use by the public.California provides an example in the United States of aggressive policies to reduce emissions. The near constant use of electricity per capita in California in recent decades (Figure 4), is a large part of the reason that the carbon intensity for California is now more like that in Europe than like the rest of the United States (Figure 8). Another reason for the lower emissions is that the mix of power sources in California (Figure 9) includes only 16% coal, with 19% from large hydroelectric plants and a non-negligible amount (12%) from other renewable sources. Downward emission trends are continuing, as electricity use was reduced 8% in 2001 via aggressive short-term conservation measures, and there are plans for long-term conservation measures as well as increased contributions from renewable energies.Barriers. There are a number of barriers to the insertion of new technologies into the energy marketplace. One societal barrier is the tendency of industry and the public to ignore life-cycle costs and impacts, and instead make purchases based on initial costs. This barrier has reduced the market penetration of many high-efficiency technologies.There are also regulatory barriers. Current regulations in the United States often favor central power station generation over distributed renewable generation, and utility rewards are designed such that profits are usually greater when more energy is sold. There are also out of date workplace regulations that impede the incorporation of new industrial process technologies.A practical barrier, which most candidate new technologies fail to span, is the so-called valley of death in which the technology fails to achieve sufficient acceptance by industry and the public to be economically viable. For example, hydrogen automobiles may require a huge investment in fuel distribution infrastructure, if they are to be accepted by the public.Scientific uncertainties. Technology has great potential for reducing air pollution emissions, but assignment of goals and priorities would be aided by more quantitative scientific information. Better understanding of the climate impact of black carbon and other aerosols is needed. We do not have a good database for aerosol emissions, especially black carbon, from different energy systems. Similarly, as natural gas is used for an increasing fraction of electricity production, we need quantitative understanding of methane emissions from the integrated infrastructure, Terry. Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A WorkshopGoddard Institute for Space Studies New York N.Y.NASA Osman Chughtai and David Shannon